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Probability 1 — not sufficient for "is" or "has" Print
Discussion, first conclusions, interpretational strategy

It has often been asserted (not least by Einstein) that if quantum mechanics assigns probability 1 to a possible outcome of a measurement of an observable, then the corresponding value is possessed by this observable even if the measurement is not actually made.  Probability 1 is sufficient for "is" or "has". Why is this wrong?

 

Resonance Fine Art

Nodal Domains II by Eric J. Heller.

 

Let us first address a different question. The probability of finding a given particle in the union AB of two disjoint regions A and B equals the sum of two probabilities: the probability of finding the particle in A and the probability of finding it in B:

p(A) + p(B) = p(A∪B).

The reason this is so would be self-evident if the particle's position were sharp (that is, if it had a precise value at all times), for then the particle would be either in A or in B whenever it is in A∪B, and the sum rule p(A) + p(B) = p(A∪B) would follow from standard probability theory.

But if an electron can go through two slits without going through a single slit and without being divided in the process, then it can also be in A∪B without it being true that it is in A and without it being true that it is in B. So whence the sum rule p(A) + p(B) = p(A∪B)? To appreciate the problem, imagine two perfect detectors DA and DB each monitoring one of those regions. If 0 < p(A) < 1 and 0 < p(B) < 1 and p(A∪B) = 1 then

  • it isn't the case that the particle is in A,
  • and it isn't the case that the particle is in B,

and so

  • it isn't certain that DA will click,
  • and it isn't certain that DB will click.

Yet since p(A∪B) = 1, it is certain that either DA or DB will click.

Why?

You'll be surprised at the simplicity of the answer: implicit in every quantum-mechanical probability assignment is the assumption that a measurement is successfully made: there is an outcome.

So there is no mystery here. But the conclusion to be drawn is that quantum mechanics gives us probabilities with which this or that outcome is obtained in a successful measurement, not probabilities with which this or that property or value is possessed, regardless of measurements.

Thus probability 1 is not sufficient for "is" or "has".

 
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